What It Costs to Move Up in Point Loma Real Estate in 2026

A couple I worked with bought a townhouse in Point Loma in 2015 for $450,000. Ten years and two kids later, the walls felt closer every year, so we listed it. It sold for $890,000. After paying off the roughly $250,000 left on their mortgage and covering commission and closing costs, they walked away with just under $580,000, nearly half of what they needed to buy their next home in Del Cerro for $1,200,000. They stayed in Point Loma real estate long enough for the math to work in their favor, then had the numbers ready when it came time to move.

It is what equity does when a family stays put long enough to build it. Point Loma today splits into two distinct stories depending on where you are standing. Point Loma Heights, the smaller-lot, more inland side of the peninsula, has a median sale price of $855,000 as of the most recent Redfin data. Cross toward the water into the broader Point Loma Peninsula, La Playa, Sunset Cliffs, the streets with view lots, and that median jumps to $1,585,000. That gap is the actual distance most of my move-up clients are trying to close, worth walking through with real numbers instead of guessing.

What Their Equity Actually Did

The same story, in numbers: sale price $890,000, minus the $250,000 mortgage payoff, minus an estimated 7 percent in commission and closing costs (about $62,300, since I do not have their exact final costs on hand), leaves net proceeds of roughly $577,700. Applied to their Del Cerro purchase, that covered just over 48 percent of the $1,200,000 price, a $622,300 loan. Ten years of paying down a $450,000 mortgage and riding normal appreciation did more of the work than any amount of saving could have.

I am sharing their numbers because the math is the whole story, and most people never actually run it on their own house.

The Move-Up Math, Worked All the Way Through (For Someone Doing This Today)

That is one real example, and every family's numbers look different. The scenario below shows what a similar move looks like right now, staying inside Point Loma, using this month's numbers instead of 2015's. It is not a real client, and the figures are illustrative, not a quote. Every input is either sourced or clearly labeled as an assumption so you can swap in your own.

Say a family owns a home in Point Loma Heights worth $855,000, and they have 50 percent equity, meaning they owe about $427,500 on their mortgage. When they sell, they will not walk away with the full $427,500 in equity. Commission and closing costs typically run around 7 percent of the sale price, which is $59,850 here. That leaves net proceeds of $367,650 to put toward the next house.

Move that $367,650 onto a $1,585,000 home on the Peninsula side, and it lands as a 23.2 percent down payment, without saving a single additional dollar. The new loan comes out to $1,217,350.

What the New Payment Actually Looks Like

At the current average 30-year fixed rate of 6.55 percent, per Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey for the week of July 16, 2026, the principal and interest on that loan runs about $7,735 a month. Add property tax (San Diego County typically runs 1.1 to 1.25 percent effective, so $1,453 to $1,651 a month on a home this size) and a placeholder estimate for homeowners insurance around $175 a month, and the full monthly housing cost, what lenders call PITI (principal, interest, taxes, and insurance), lands between $9,360 and $9,560.

To qualify for that using a standard 30 percent front-end ratio (the share of your gross monthly income lenders want your housing payment to stay under), a household would need roughly $378,000 in annual income. Total cash to close, down payment plus an estimated 2.5 percent in closing costs, comes to about $407,000, which is about $40,000 more than the $367,650 the sale itself generates. That gap is the real question a family in this position needs to answer before anything else: not can we afford the home, but do we have that extra cushion sitting somewhere separate from the sale.

These figures are estimates for illustration only, not a loan quote or financial advice. Your rate, tax rate, insurance cost, and qualifying income will depend on your actual numbers and your lender. I am glad to run your specific scenario.

Why These Two Neighborhoods, Specifically

I use Point Loma Heights and the Peninsula side as the example because that is the move I see most often. For a fuller breakdown of how the peninsula's pockets differ street by street, I put together a Point Loma neighborhoods guide that goes deeper than this post has room for. Point Loma Heights is where a lot of buyers land first: good schools, walkable to Liberty Station, smaller lots that keep the entry price more reachable. It is not what people elsewhere would call a starter neighborhood, but relative to the rest of the peninsula, it is the more attainable side.

Once a family has been in one of those homes for a decade or more, two things have usually happened: the kids have outgrown the layout, and the mortgage has quietly built serious equity, especially if they bought before rates moved. The Peninsula side, the streets closer to the water with the view lots and the larger footprints, is where that equity goes to work, a different market with different inventory, different competition, and a different kind of buyer.

Will the San Diego Housing Market Crash?

I get asked this a lot, almost always by someone who has already decided they want to move and is looking for a reason to wait. I am not going to predict prices or rates. Nobody can do that honestly, and anyone who tells you they know is guessing with more confidence than the facts support. I can show you which risk is bigger.

Using the numbers above, if that same $1,585,000 home were $100,000 cheaper, the monthly payment on it would drop by about $488, holding the down payment percentage steady. Now look at the other lever. If the mortgage rate moved just one point, up or down, from 6.55 percent, the payment on that same $1,217,350 loan would shift by roughly $780 to $820 a month.

The rate risk is bigger than the price risk in this scenario. A family waiting for a price drop that may or may not come is exposed to a rate move that has historically swung more than a full point in a matter of months, in either direction. That is a fact about how sensitive this specific payment is to each variable, not a prediction that rates will move, and it changes what you should be watching for before you decide to wait.

How Much Equity Do You Actually Have

If you are in a similar spot, the first real step is figuring out what your current home would net you today, not what you assume it is worth. I run this for free for anyone considering a move in the next six to twelve months, using current comparable sales rather than an automated estimate. You can also see current San Diego County market data I update monthly for a broader read on where things stand.

Frequently Asked Questions

Has this actually happened for someone in Point Loma?

Yes. One couple I worked with bought a Point Loma townhouse in 2015 for $450,000 and sold it in 2025 for $890,000. After paying off their remaining mortgage and covering selling costs, they walked away with just under $580,000, enough to put roughly 48 percent down on their next home. That is a real, closed transaction, not a projection.

How much equity do I need to move up in Point Loma?

It depends on your target price and your comfort level with your new payment. In the current-market example above, a family selling an $855,000 home with 50 percent equity generated enough net proceeds for a 23.2 percent down payment on a $1,585,000 home. Less equity means either a smaller target price or a larger cash contribution at closing.

What is the median home price in Point Loma right now?

Point Loma Heights has a median sale price of $855,000, while the broader Point Loma Peninsula, including the view-home streets closer to the water, sits at a median of $1,585,000, per the most recent Redfin neighborhood data. Prices vary by street and lot type within both areas.

Is now a good time to sell in Point Loma?

That depends on your specific equity position, your next home's price point, and your timeline, not on trying to time the broader market. The math above shows how to run your own numbers rather than guessing based on headlines.

How much income do I need to buy a $1.5 million home in San Diego?

Using a standard 30 percent front-end debt ratio and current mortgage rates, a household would need roughly $378,000 in annual income to qualify for the payment on a $1,217,350 loan at 6.55 percent, before accounting for other debts that would lower that ratio further. Your qualifying income depends on your lender, your credit profile, and your other monthly debts.

Will the San Diego housing market crash?

No one can predict that with certainty, and I do not make market predictions. One thing is knowable: a one-point move in mortgage rates changes a typical Point Loma move-up payment more than a $100,000 swing in price does. That is worth weighing against whatever you are waiting to see happen.

If You Are Thinking About This

This is meant to give you the actual numbers so the decision is yours to make with clear eyes instead of a guess, not to tell you what to do. If you want to run your specific equity position, your specific target price, or talk through whether this is the right year for your family, call or text me at 858.750.5753 or email Shirin@TheSDHome.com. I have been doing this in San Diego since 2006, and I would rather spend an hour on your real numbers than have you make this decision off a headline.